Today is a major day for Europeans who are involved in aviation. Lufthansa Group is rumored to be the next to acquire a 44.9% stake in Portugal's flag carrier TAP Air Portugal. The Portuguese government will confirm the news at an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, and sources say the news is all but a done deal.

It's not a boardroom drama for travelers or point collectors. Someone with a large stake in TAP might determine the fares, routes and where you can use miles on one of the best airlines for trans-Atlantic flights between North America and Europe.

The Story of how Lufthansa edged out Air France-KLM

It's just been money, it appears. Lufthansa Group reportedly made an all-cash bid and Air France-KLM's bid was made using a combination of cash and shares in its group. A clean check is generally better than a package linked to a stock price for the seller that wants to be certain.

Lufthansa's financial health also is included in the picture in Reuters' report. A bidder with more capital might seem a more stable long-term partner for an airline that has been mired in years of government-led privatization.

But, nothing's official until it's official, as they say. This sort of deal requires governmental approval and a lot may change from a handshake to final approval. Because there's more to come in the next couple of days, don't believe everything you hear in these headlines, but take them as a signpost.

Why This Deal Matters for Travelers

That's when it gets interesting for those who fly transatlantic or redeem points for award tickets. If the acquisition is successful, some changes may be in store:

• Greater South America presence: TAP's Brazilian focus is missing from Lufthansa Group's portfolio.
• Coordinated fares and schedules could be a result of a possible joint venture entry for TAP.
• Defensive logic: If you purchase TAP, it will not get into the hands of any competitor.

The Lisbon Factor

Lisbon quietly has emerged as one of Europe's most useful gateways. TAP uses it for the links between travelers from the U.S. and Canada and dozens of destinations in Europe and Africa, notably Brazil. Despite its size in Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna and Brussels, Lufthansa Group is not a big player in South America. A significant stake in TAP would provide it with an existing cross bridge into that market rather than having to construct one.

What Will Happen To the Cheap Atlantic Fares?

This is where budget-minded flyers will look out. TAP is a member of Star Alliance, so it gets along well with other partners, such as United. It's not part of the joint venture which is exempt from antitrust law that allows other Star Alliance airlines to coordinate operations over the Atlantic.

It's important that you're an outsider. This means that TAP can afford to quote aggressively on transatlantic routes at the moment and that's partly why it's easy to find cheap tickets to Europe these days. The rationale for undercutting each other would evaporate if they were in a joint venture, as those that coordinate schedules and pricing have fewer reasons to cut each other's prices. Those cheap tickets might prove to be more difficult to come by, if TAP is folded in.

The situation is less rosy for points fans. The tighter integration might smooth the way for award space and for partner redemptions, and might also dampen the competition that keeps cash fares low. It’s too early to say which effect would win out.

A Defense Can be as Useful as an Attack

There's another way to read all this. There are three large long-haul aviation companies in Europe and each one has a vested interest in preventing any other company from encroaching. Sometimes an airline is acquired not as a product for the buyer to create, but as a product the buyer can stop. Part of locking a stake in TAP may be to ensure that a competitor doesn't.

The Human Side of the Story

It is important to note that this is not everyone's desired outcome. In the spirit of things, some in the industry were hoping that Air France-KLM would get the best of it. That's a far better reputation than Lufthansa's and a key consideration when investing in an airline whose staff and passengers value security.

By the time a strike makes headlines, it's already severely impacting travel plans, but labor issues have a huge impact on the passenger experience. A settled workforce will lead to a more reliable airline. If Lufthansa's labour policy is in fact being applied to TAP, some travellers could feel the pinch in the future. So far it's a best guess, but it's a reasonable factor to consider.

What to Watch Next

More information about the price, the terms and the timing for the regulatory review will be forthcoming over the next few days. The combined number is not as much of an indicator as you may think as far as your future fares and award opportunities with TAP are concerned, so make sure to look out for any word of warning regarding the future of your partnership. It pays to make a large decision on loyalty until the dust has settled, though, if you're a frequent flyer with the airline or have TAP Miles&Go points.

The Bottom Line

Lufthansa Group looks set to outbid Air France-KLM for 44.9% of TAP Air Portugal, mainly because it offered an all-cash bid and more robust finances. It's not whether either bidder got the same access to the South American market because they had access to TAP, but rather, what they did with their people once they had them. In that regard, Air France-KLM would probably have been the easier fit. The final decision is not yet in yet and if TAP is merged into Lufthansa's transatlantic joint venture, it may affect the fares and award policies you use to travel, so keep an eye out.