Scott Kirby certainly isn't an executive whose presence could be overlooked. The CEO of United Airlines is bold, strategic and quite willing to make a statement in the public eye. His recent remarks at a conference conducted by a team of investors headed by Bernstein have turned heads around the aviation industry for a different reason; namely, because they run counter to what he's been saying for about two years.

During the conference, Kirby's comment was quite clear: No airline consolidations are in United's interest and buying JetBlue in particular is "the last thing," considering that the carrier is losing money and not such a desirable route network. Strong words. The fact is, they clash with a long history of public assertions that run entirely counter to those words.

What is this really?

Some of the background behind where we are today. A possible United-EVL deal has been brewing for years. But it was periphery, at least in part helped by Kirby himself, who repeatedly said that a merger could be compatible if, and only if, “regulatory conditions” supported it and/or “JetBlue (is) willing to have it. Just 12 months ago, he put it to JetBlue's own public post that the "ball is going to be in JetBlue's court" when it was time for consolidation talks.

That sounds more like a throwaway statement by a middle-of-the-hub ruling spokesperson. That is about a Chief Executive in essence indicating willingness for a deal, albeit a more considerate discussion of the next step is required. It wasn't long before the aviation and investor groups started taking notice.

There was also another and, bizarrely, more bizarre tale in which United allegedly came calling on the Trump administration about the notion of buying American Airlines. In fact, Kirby even publicized a “trade deficit” argument as to why such consolidation would be construed as "patriotic," an argument that was strongly disputed by non-patriots. It was seen by many as a strategic ploy on the part of the Americans an overture, over such a large elephant, to make a large ask of the JetBlue deal sound reasonable.

Then Came the Reversal

So it was not a case of walking back the openness of Kirby, it was more like walking back to the degree of openness that was espoused. Just about chided the notion that the American overture was a ploy to get the deal done with JetBlue as “idiotic” whenever he spoke about it. He has this principle: If a “carrier is a liability, he doesn't want to become one.

On the surface, it sounds like a valid worry: JetBlue has been unprofitable a moment since 2005, and has publically begun to talk about how it could merge, as its financial situation has worsened in recent years. Having to file Chapter 11 bankruptcy is a possibility if the airline isn't able to get its operations back on track and get to the better side of the results.

However, Kirby's argument begins to seem a bit one-sided as he labels JetBlue as "a route network that loses money," a move that either provides a rather basic analysis or is on purpose. Every sophisticated player in the airline industry knows how fast the fortunes on a given route will change when different people fly it (under different banners).

The Unseen Potential Kirby Has Not Mentioned

It's not difficult to imagine a financial scenario in which a United-JetBlue merger would make sense. What would happen in almost no time at all if JetBlue flew in a larger, well-financed network:

• One of the most lucrative areas of the airline industry that would benefit from the addition of a JetBlue loyalty program to MileagePlus is co-branded credit card revenue.
• JetBlue's transatlantic routes, United's membership in Star Alliance and its international joint ventures with United could well create a lot of connectivity at JFK, an area where the carrier has always had an interest in becoming better known.
• One of JetBlue's greatest revenue weaknesses has been the lack of exclusive seats in its cabins, so the upgrades are just a few that would mesh into a merger.

All this is not some phantasy. It's an analysis that investment banks and airline strategists do often when assessing consolidation options. Either Kirby is an incredibly graceful executive, or he could have been playing one of his favorite games.The Kirby pearls remise with one stroke of a pen to “I'm willing to take the hit on the wallet” seems either to be implying that he's playing one of the games that's popular with him or that he meant to be flippant.

But, what exactly is Kirby doing?

There's a theory that Kirby is measuring JetBlue's price. United could appear to be indifferent to a deal, which would be a good shot at putting downward pressure on a target's stock price and leverage, as the deal gets negotiated. Acquirers do this.

Or it may be that the regulatory laws simply don't pan out the long way that Kirby had originally envisioned and he's readjusting out there before taking the formal step. But JetBlue's debt load is considerable, servicing nearly $8 billion while attempting to merge two carriers would mark a very tough time for a well-managed airline.

Perhaps Kirby just changed his mind, and perhaps, it's a real shift. That's allowed. Executives are free to change their assessed perspectives as circumstances evolve. It's more difficult to come to terms with the fact that his "position" has not changed at all like he hadn't made any publicly known statements over the last two years.

What "this" means for JetBlue's future?

But the more important thing that appears to be in question here is what will happen to JetBlue if the United door is indeed closed. There are many potential partners in the works, and the realistic list of potential acquirers is not limitless.

But difficult as it is a second big deal in a two-game span isn't a pull-off for Alaska. It does not seem to make logical sense to have a Southwest combination. American Airlines has the most upside in terms of network complementarity, but those financial headwinds are a reality and American isn't exactly loaded with capacity for a big fill-up right now, especially in the Northeast.

JetBlue's days are numbered. It's hoped the airline will find a way to be a self-supporting entity without its debt burden being adjusted by yet another takeover, but thus far that logic hasn't proven tenable. It's not certain either time, and the tickers roar are louder now than they did last year.

The Bottom Line

Scott Kirby is an intelligent and highly capable man in a highly respected airline. Which is not in doubt. Whether he made such remarks while he was clearly holding his nose to critical realities or whether he was just playing a game of gamesmanship is what is up for discussion.

The aviation industry has developed a shark sense for considering some of what Kirby has done rather than what he has said. His utterances have been misaligned from his deeds for some time now and this is his greatest departure to date.